Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.014937 0.016909 0.019061 0.021586 0.024471 0.027670 0.031490
2024-10-20 0.011570 0.014185 0.017288 0.021256 0.026213 0.032221 0.040091
2024-10-27 0.009510 0.012285 0.015768 0.020482 0.026732 0.034783 0.046018
2024-11-03 0.008630 0.011644 0.015605 0.021230 0.029074 0.039713 0.055390
2024-11-10 0.007899 0.011063 0.015390 0.021795 0.031127 0.044371 0.064842
2024-11-17 0.007294 0.010559 0.015187 0.022295 0.033068 0.048995 0.074710
2024-11-24 0.006579 0.009806 0.014525 0.022016 0.033777 0.051812 0.082097
2024-12-01 0.005995 0.009179 0.013970 0.021811 0.034532 0.054714 0.089872
2024-12-08 0.005502 0.008636 0.013479 0.021635 0.035276 0.057625 0.097934
2024-12-15 0.005225 0.008402 0.013442 0.022167 0.037205 0.062633 0.110101
2024-12-22 0.004831 0.007938 0.012986 0.021948 0.037824 0.065453 0.118681
2024-12-29 0.004653 0.007817 0.013079 0.022662 0.040115 0.071397 0.133637
2025-01-05 0.004216 0.007224 0.012336 0.021864 0.039660 0.072426 0.139579
2025-01-12 0.003899 0.006813 0.011874 0.021528 0.040023 0.075009 0.148893
2025-01-19 0.003547 0.006311 0.011206 0.020743 0.039445 0.075715 0.154462
2025-01-26 0.003451 0.006264 0.011352 0.021502 0.041925 0.082645 0.173825
2025-02-02 0.003336 0.006170 0.011402 0.022074 0.044085 0.089151 0.193106
2025-02-09 0.003221 0.006064 0.011420 0.022581 0.046154 0.095678 0.213273
2025-02-16 0.003020 0.005779 0.011066 0.022298 0.046536 0.098650 0.225675
2025-02-23 0.002845 0.005529 0.010762 0.022091 0.047054 0.101962 0.239288
2025-03-02 0.002687 0.005301 0.010485 0.021912 0.047612 0.105414 0.253678
2025-03-09 0.002614 0.005240 0.010539 0.022451 0.049829 0.112886 0.279068
2025-03-16 0.002471 0.005025 0.010260 0.022230 0.050279 0.116265 0.294432